Disrupted Supply Chains – Middle East Conflict Impacts Global Air and Sea Freight: What Baltic Shippers Need to Know

Disrupted Supply Chains shock the world again. This time it is caused by the escalation of the conflict involving Iran in late February 2026. Disrupted supply chains across global logistics networks already affect both air cargo and ocean freight corridors between Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. Companies relying on reliable international transport—including pharmaceutical and life-science supply chains—should expect increased volatility in transit times, capacity, and pricing.

Air Freight: Reduced Capacity and Route Changes due to Disrupted Supply Chains

A large portion of global air cargo flows between Asia and Europe normally transits through major Middle Eastern hubs such as Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi. Due to airspace closures and security risks across parts of the region, airlines have been forced to cancel flights or take longer alternative routes, reducing overall cargo capacity and increasing transit times.
Industry estimates indicate that global air cargo capacity has already contracted significantly, with some Asia–Europe routes experiencing reductions of more than 20% as airlines avoid conflict zones.

For cargo flows relevant to the Baltic region, this means:

• • Longer routing via Central Asia or southern corridors
  • Reduced freighter capacity on key Asia–Europe lanes
  • Higher operating costs due to fuel consumption and detours
  • Increased air freight rates on some routes

Airlines have also been facing rising fuel costs linked to disruptions in energy supply routes, further increasing operational expenses and freight pricing pressure.
For time- and temperature-sensitive shipments, including pharmaceutical products, biologics, clinical trial materials, and vaccines, these disruptions may require more proactive planning and earlier booking of capacity.

Ocean Freight: Strategic Maritime Routes Under Pressure

Ocean transport is also experiencing significant disruption due to the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea maritime corridors.
The Strait of Hormuz alone handles a substantial share of global energy and cargo flows, and military escalation has caused vessel traffic in the area to decline sharply, with many ships waiting outside the Gulf or diverting routes due to security concerns.

Some carriers have already begun:

• • rerouting vessels away from high-risk areas
  • introducing war-risk or emergency surcharges
  • extending transit times for Asia–Europe shipments

In certain cases, container ships are avoiding the Suez corridor entirely and rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10–15 days to transit times.

What Disrupted Supply Chains Mean for Baltic Importers and Exporters

For companies in Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, the disruption may affect several critical supply chains:

• • Pharmaceutical and life-science logistics 
  • Temperature-controlled shipments
  • High-value electronics and components
  • Industrial and project cargo

Key risks include:

• • extended transit times
  • temporary capacity shortages
  • increased freight costs
  • potential schedule instability for both air and sea freight

A2 Cargo Advisory for Customers

Given the current uncertainty, A2 Cargo recommends the following operational measures for shipments originating from or destined to the Baltics:

• • Book air freight capacity earlier than usual, particularly for urgent or temperature-sensitive cargo
  • Plan alternative routing options where possible
  • Allow additional transit buffers for critical shipments
  • Consult logistics providers early for risk assessment and route planning

For life science shipments, maintaining validated cold-chain integrity during potential transit delays remains a priority. Where necessary, enhanced packaging solutions and monitoring can be implemented to mitigate risk.

Monitoring the Situation

The situation remains fluid and logistics conditions may change rapidly depending on geopolitical developments. The global supply chain is already experiencing ripple effects similar to previous major disruptions, including capacity shortages and price volatility.
A2 Cargo continues to closely monitor developments across airline networks, shipping lines, and international logistics corridors in order to support customers with reliable and compliant transportation solutions.
For shipment-specific guidance or contingency planning, please contact the A2 Cargo operations team.